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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Sea Ltd. (SE) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-27): Designation Watch · Gem Score -3 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 61 · Value -46 · Sentiment 72 (timing only, not weighted)
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
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Sea Ltd.
SE NYSESea Ltd. is a consumer internet company headquartered in Singapore that operates three core digital platforms across emerging markets. Its Digital Entertainment segment, known as Garena, develops and publishes online and mobile games, distributing titles and in-house franchises to a broad user base. The E-Commerce segment operates Shopee, a leading online marketplace that connects buyers and sellers, supporting third-party merchants with integrated logistics, marketing tools, and localized user experiences. Through Shopee’s mobile app and web platform, Sea facilitates retail transactions across multiple product categories, serving consumers and small businesses. The Digital Financial Services segment, branded as SeaMoney, provides digital payments, wallets, and lending solutions to individuals and merchants, supporting transactions within and beyond Sea’s own ecosystem. Founded in 2007 and based in Singapore, Sea Ltd. plays a significant role in the digitalization of commerce, entertainment, and financial services in Southeast Asia and other growth markets by integrating content, marketplace activity, and financial infrastructure into a unified digital network.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
Sea Ltd. is a foreign private issuer — it reports to the U.S. SEC once a year (on Form 20-F or 40-F) rather than filing the quarterly statements (10-Q) that U.S.-domiciled companies must submit. Our financial statements are read directly from SEC filings, so for this company only annual figures exist at the source.
This is a property of how the company files, not missing or broken data — its filing history shows 9 annual reports, the latest filed 2026-04-17, and no quarterly filings . The company may still publish quarterly results on its own investor-relations site.
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 2.52
Total Equity: $12.65B
Shares: 638,227,141
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $4.16B
EBITDA: $2.36B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $4.16B
Revenue: $22.94B
Revenue: $22.94B
Revenue: $22.94B
Total Equity: $12.65B
Tax Rate: 28.5%
Equity: $12.65B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $4.16B
Current Liabilities: $14.68B
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $12.65B
Shares: 638,227,141
Shares: 638,227,141
CapEx: -$513.81M
Shares: 638,227,141
Stock Price: $130.46
Net Income: $1.58B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 12:30pm (82d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | $13.1B | $16.8B | $22.9B |
| Cost of Revenue | $6.1B | $7.3B | $7.2B | $9.6B | $12.7B |
| Gross Profit | $3.9B | $5.2B | $5.8B | $7.2B | $10.2B |
| Operating Expenses | $5.5B | $6.7B | $5.6B | $6.5B | $8.3B |
| Operating Income | -$1.6B | -$1.5B | $224.8M | $662.2M | $2.0B |
| Net Income | -$2.0B | -$1.7B | $150.7M | $444.3M | $1.6B |
| EBITDA | -$1.3B | -$1.1B | $665.6M | $1.1B | $2.4B |
| EPS | $-3.84 | $-2.96 | $0.27 | $0.77 | $2.65 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-3.84 | $-2.96 | $0.25 | $0.74 | $2.52 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 12:30pm (82d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $9.2B | $6.0B | $2.8B | $2.4B | $4.2B |
| Total Current Assets | $15.1B | $12.7B | $11.8B | $16.9B | $23.2B |
| Total Assets | $18.8B | $17.0B | $18.9B | $22.6B | $29.4B |
| Current Liabilities | $7.2B | $6.9B | $8.2B | $11.3B | $14.7B |
| Long-Term Debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total Liabilities | $11.3B | $11.2B | $12.2B | $14.1B | $16.7B |
| Total Equity | $7.4B | $5.8B | $6.7B | $8.5B | $12.6B |
| Retained Earnings | -$7.2B | -$8.7B | -$8.6B | -$8.2B | -$6.6B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 12:30pm (82d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $208.6M | -$1.1B | $2.1B | $3.3B | $5.0B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$772.2M | -$924.2M | -$241.6M | -$318.2M | -$513.8M |
| Free Cash Flow | -$563.5M | -$2.0B | $1.8B | $3.0B | $4.5B |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$22.8M | -$60.7M | $0 | $0 | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $115.3M | $49.0M | $0 | $0 | — |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | — | — | $0 | $0 | -$14.0M |
| Net Change in Cash | $3.8B | -$3.2B | -$3.4B | -$162.1M | $2.3B |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 12:30pm (82d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | — | — | +28.8% | +36.4% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +33.1% | +12.5% | +23.5% | +42.2% |
| Operating Income Growth | +6.0% | +115.1% | +194.6% | +199.8% |
| Net Income Growth | +19.3% | +109.1% | +194.8% | +255.2% |
| EBITDA Growth | +18.8% | +162.8% | +58.0% | +124.1% |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Not computed yetNarrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Starting with the raw numbers before touching the model outputs: Sea has genuinely inflected. Revenue went from $13.06B (2023) → $16.82B (2024) → $22.94B (2025), a two-year run rate of ~32% CAGR with the most recent year accelerating to 36.4%. Operating income compounded from $225M → $662M → $1.99B — roughly 3x each year, meaning operating margin expanded from 1.7% → 3.9% → 8.7%. Net margin is now 6.9%, FCF is $4.51B on $22.94B revenue (~20% FCF margin, which is striking given the reported operating margin of 8.7% — the gap suggests heavy D&A, working-capital tailwinds, or SBC add-backs worth scrutinizing). Balance sheet is clean: $4.16B cash, no reported debt, $12.65B equity. ROIC of 16.7% on a business still investing heavily is respectable. This is not a speculative story anymore; it's a business that generated $5B in operating cash flow last year.
Where I disagree with the synthesis: the "undervalued, fair value $182" call leans too heavily on a DCF that extrapolates the 2023→2025 margin ramp. The thesis evaluation is more honest — it correctly flags that $131 already prices in ~35% FCF CAGR to a $13-15B FCF base by 2030, which is a very demanding path. At 51.8x earnings and 31x EV/EBITDA on trailing numbers that are themselves the peak of an inflection, this is not a margin-of-safety setup. The Market Forces signal ("tailwinds but high-risk high-reward") is closer to reality than the valuation synthesis. Note also the internal contradiction: the thesis engine scores -5 (bear-lean), yet the composite verdict is "undervalued +38%." Those don't reconcile — the synthesis appears to be a mechanical DCF that the narrative and thesis layers are pushing back on, and I side with the pushback.
The contrarian argument writes itself and it's serious. Shopee's margin expansion coincided with Lazada retrenching and TikTok Shop being disrupted by the Indonesia ban episode — that's a competitive gift that's already partially reversed as TikTok Shop returned via Tokopedia. Brazil is a cash furnace where Sea is fighting MELI on their home turf; MELI has the logistics moat and the fintech flywheel already spun up. Garena's Free Fire is well past its peak cohort and gaming revenue is structurally lumpy — the 2025 op-income surge is not repeatable at that rate of change. If you strip subsidy-driven take-rate expansion, Shopee's steady-state contribution margin is genuinely unknown. The FCF-to-net-income ratio of 2.85x is suspicious for a company still growing 36% — that usually means working capital + SBC are doing heavy lifting, and SBC is a real cost even if DCFs ignore it. Insider activity is small but uniformly selling; no buys, which matters at 52x P/E.
Data quality flags: no quarterly revenue data provided (which is the whole story in a business this dynamic), 2021-2022 revenue is blank in the annual table, and the insider dates are stamped 2026 which is either a data error or forward-dated filings — either way suspicious. Debt shown as "—" and then debt/equity as 0 is inconsistent; Sea does carry convertible notes historically, so someone should verify. The "signal-adjusted" $181.92 fair value is a black box I don't trust when the raw composite was $123.55 (below current price). My read: fair value is roughly $110-140 on realistic assumptions (25% FCF CAGR fading to 15%, terminal 25x FCF, 10% discount), meaning the stock is fairly to slightly overvalued here, not 38% undervalued. I dissent from the synthesis. This is a high-quality compounder that has already been re-rated for the good news; the risk/reward at $130 is symmetric at best, and the bear case (TikTok Shop competition + Brazil bleed + Garena mean-reversion) is credible enough that I'd want $95-105 before taking a real position. Hold if you own it, don't chase it here.
GPT Reading
Sea’s numbers tell a real operating turnaround, not a paper one. Revenue went from $13.06B in 2023 to $16.82B in 2024 and then $22.94B in 2025, a two-year increase of 76%, while operating income moved from $224.8M to $662.2M to $1.99B. Gross profit also scaled cleanly, from $5.83B to $7.21B to $10.24B, holding gross margin around 44.7% even through rapid expansion. That combination matters: this is not a company buying growth with collapsing unit economics. The more striking figure is cash generation. On $1.58B of net income in 2025, Sea produced $5.02B of operating cash flow and $4.51B of free cash flow with only $513.8M of capex. Even allowing for working-capital help and the usual platform-model timing benefits, a business producing nearly 20% FCF margin on $22.94B of revenue deserves a premium multiple.
That said, the market is already giving it one. At $130.46, Sea trades around 51.8x earnings, 31.2x EV/EBITDA, 3.63x sales, and 6.58x book. Those are not distressed-turnaround multiples; they are “we believe this is the start, not the end, of margin expansion” multiples. I think that belief is partly justified, but the valuation synthesis calling the stock undervalued leans too hard on extrapolating today’s cash flow shape. If I anchor on current fundamentals rather than a five-year aspiration, the stock looks closer to fairly valued than clearly cheap. A $70.31B market cap against $4.51B of FCF is about 15.6x FCF, which sounds attractive until you remember this is likely a high-water mark for cash conversion relative to accounting earnings during a sharp profitability inflection. Meanwhile the P/E north of 50 says the market itself does not fully trust current earnings power to represent steady-state economics, and I agree with that caution.
What stands out most is the mismatch between quality and durability. Quality has improved dramatically: zero reported debt, $4.16B cash, 12.5% ROE, 16.7% ROIC, positive operating leverage everywhere you look. Durability is the harder question. This is still a multi-engine company whose valuation likely depends on investors believing at least two of those engines can compound simultaneously. The model output that frames Sea as “high-growth profitable” is directionally right, but it smooths over the central issue: once you’ve gone from deeply negative EBIT in 2021-2022 to $1.99B of operating profit in 2025, the next leg gets much tougher. Growing revenue 36% and earnings 255% off a recovering base is one thing; sustaining enough incremental margin to justify 31x EBITDA and 52x earnings is another. My read is that the stock deserves to trade well above old loss-making Sea, but not at a wide discount to intrinsic value unless one assumes several more years of near-flawless execution.
The best argument against my caution is simple: I may be underestimating how unusual it is to find a consumer internet platform at this scale with 36% top-line growth, 8.7% operating margin, 19.7% FCF margin, no leverage, and a huge regional runway. If 2025 is not a cash-flow peak but merely an early normalized year, then 3.2x EV/revenue is not expensive at all. A business compounding gross profit from $5.83B to $10.24B in two years can plausibly drive operating margin from 8.7% into the low teens without heroic assumptions, and if net income were to move from $1.58B toward $3B-$4B over the next two years, today’s P/E would compress rapidly. The bears also have to explain why a company with $4.51B of FCF and $4.16B of cash should trade cheaply when balance-sheet risk is basically absent. I weigh those points seriously; they are why I am not bearish.
What would change my mind is specific. If the next annual print shows revenue still above $28B with operating margin at or above 10% and free cash flow again above $4.5B without a major working-capital tailwind, then I would move to clearly undervalued because the durability question would start to resolve in Sea’s favor. On the other hand, if revenue growth drops into the teens while operating income stalls around the current ~$2B level or FCF falls sharply below $3.5B, that would confirm 2025 as a favorable transition year rather than a new base, and the current $130 would look rich. For now, I think the right read is that Sea is a very good business at a price that already reflects most of that improvement; fair value is roughly in the $115-$140 range, with upside requiring another year of proof rather than hope.
Grok Reading
Sea’s 2025 print is the real pivot, not a rounding error. Revenue scaled from $13.06B in 2023 to $16.82B in 2024 to $22.94B in 2025—a 36% latest-year acceleration on a 32.5% multi-year CAGR—while operating income swung from –$1.49B (2022) through $225M and $662M into $1.99B, and net income reached $1.58B. Free cash flow of $4.51B on only $514M of capex is the standout: roughly 20% FCF margin and operating cash flow of $5.02B imply the P&L profitability is backed by genuine cash conversion, not accounting optics. Gross margin held at 44.7% even as the top line compounded, and the balance sheet is clean—$4.16B cash, stated debt-to-equity of zero, $12.65B equity—so the $70B market cap is not levered fantasy. At ~15.6× trailing FCF and 3.2× EV/revenue, the multiple is demanding on earnings (52× P/E, 31× EV/EBITDA) but far less extreme once you anchor on cash generation rather than the still-thin 6.9% net margin.
The numbers contradict any residual “unprofitable growth story” framing. Rule-based classification correctly tags high-growth profitable; ROIC of 16.7% and ROE of 12.5% already look like a scaled platform, not a subsidy sink. Where the quantitative stack overreaches is the jump from a $124 composite to a signal-adjusted $182 (+38%). That uplift embeds the market thesis that 2024–25 margins are a trough and that Shopee take-rate/ad monetization plus SeaMoney can push the firm toward mid-30s EBITDA margins and mid-teens revenue growth into the $40B+ revenue zone. Current operating margin is only 8.7%; the gap between today’s economics and the DCF’s 2027 assumptions is wide enough that the $50B “story discount” cited in the narrative layer is partly rational skepticism, not pure mispricing. Insider sales in August 2026 are small in absolute share count and do not reverse the cash-flow picture, but they add no sponsorship signal either.
The strongest case against a constructive stance is precisely the execution bar the thesis evaluation flags. Sustaining anything close to 25–35% FCF compounding off a $4.5B base toward the $13B-plus 2030 machine the market is said to be discounting requires Shopee to defend density in core SEA while holding Brazil/LatAm, Garena to stop being a drag, and SeaMoney to scale without credit losses—against TikTok Shop and a macro backdrop already labeled headwinds. If unit economics were subsidy-fueled rather than density-driven, the 44.7% gross margin and 20% FCF margin prove fragile the moment growth is defended with promotions; in that world 52× earnings and 31× EBITDA compress hard and the stock is worth closer to 10–12× FCF, i.e. low-to-mid $90s. Sector-relative underperformance and a fragile turnaround narrative reinforce that the bear case is not fringe. I weigh this differently because the absolute FCF dollars and the zero-net-debt structure already give a floor the pure multiple-compression story understates; a company throwing off $4.5B with sub-3% of revenue in capex can absorb a growth slowdown to mid-teens without becoming a value trap at 15–16× cash flow.
I would flip to a clear overvalued call if next two prints show revenue growth decelerating through 20% with operating margin stalling below 10%, or if FCF drops under $3.5B while management re-accelerates subsidies in Brazil or core SEA. I would raise conviction materially higher on the undervalued side if Shopee contribution margins are disclosed expanding another 200–300 bps with GMV still mid-teens-plus, or if SeaMoney reaches a disclosed run-rate that makes the fintech segment a visible double-digit EBIT contributor—evidence that the 8.7% group operating margin is mid-cycle, not peak.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
The trajectory is striking: revenue scaled from $13.06B (2023) to $22.94B (2025), a ~33% CAGR, while operating margin climbed from 1.7% to 8.7% and net income went from $151M to $1.58B. FCF stepped from -$1.98B in 2022 to +$4.51B in 2025 - a roughly $6.5B swing in three years - and the company now sits on $10.57B liquid cash with effectively no offsetting debt (net cash equals gross cash). Earnings quality checks are clean: OCF/NI of 4.98x, accruals -10% of assets, Beneish M -2.81, Altman Z 3.56. Cash generation is real, not accrual-driven. The one blemish is dilution discipline. Diluted shares grew from 532.7M (2021) to 638.2M (2025), a 4.6% CAGR, with SBC at 2.7% of revenue and buybacks recovering just 0.4% of SBC. That is a persistent per-share headwind on an otherwise excellent business - operating leverage is winning the race, but shareholders are quietly paying employees with equity rather than the treasury reclaiming it. Insider tape is small routine selling by non-C-suite names (Wang Yanjun, Ye Gang) in modest sizes, consistent with vesting monetization - no directional signal, and no insider buying to counterbalance. The business looks like a durable regional platform (Shopee/SeaMoney/Garena mix) hitting scale economics, though moat specifics, segment mix, and Garena's Free Fire dependency are not visible in this data set.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- Segment-level profitability: is Shopee's e-commerce operating profit real and sustainable, or is Garena still carrying the group?
- Free Fire user/bookings trajectory and any pipeline titles - digital entertainment concentration risk
- SBC schedule and any RSU cliff vests that could accelerate dilution further
- Geographic concentration and regulatory posture in Indonesia, Brazil, and other key Shopee markets
- SeaMoney credit book quality: NPL ratios, provisioning, and off-balance-sheet lending exposure
- Whether management has articulated a capital return framework now that FCF exceeds $4B
The composite fair value of $123.55 sits about 6% BELOW the $131.41 price, so the base-case math says slightly rich, not cheap. The DCF at $143 implies modest 9% upside, while the EPV floor at $15 is a rounding-error reminder that this business only just turned profitable - two years of operating profit cannot support much of a steady-state anchor. The signal-adjusted $181.92 fair value (38% upside) is doing most of the bullish work, but it embeds continued margin expansion and Shopee monetization, which is precisely what the bear case disputes.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Shopee take-rate trajectory and contribution margin per order in latest quarter
- Garena bookings trend and whether Free Fire stabilization is durable
- SG&A and sales-and-marketing intensity - is the profit inflection subsidy-normalization or true operating leverage
- SBC as % of revenue and share count guidance
- Management commentary on capital return or continued reinvestment
SE just walked into the ideal sentiment setup: a risk-on tape (regime +47, VIX 15.5) that rewards high-beta growth exactly when the company delivered a 48% revenue beat with Shopee outlook strengthening. Shares gapped ~9% on the print and the news flow is uniformly positive - Bloomberg, Investing.com, and Motley Fool all framing it as a genuine reacceleration, not a relief bounce. For a 1.51-beta EM internet name that had been carrying a fragile turnaround narrative, this is the kind of catalyst that flips the story arc from 'can they hold margins' to 'growth is back.' The peer contrast amplifies the tailwind: Coupang is getting punished on a fine plus data breach, MercadoLibre is diverging, and SE is being singled out as the winner in the e-commerce cohort. That relative-strength framing tends to pull in momentum and growth-mandate flows. Macro is the only real offset - 10y at 4.65% and market PE 26 are a background drag on long-duration EM growth - but with the tape risk-on and the narrative actively strengthening on hard numbers, the non-fundamental pressure is decisively to the upside right now. Durability is the honest caveat: the narrative was tagged fragile pre-print, and one quarter does not permanently retire the subsidy-war bear case.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Whether analyst target revisions in the next 1-2 weeks upgrade the archetype from turnaround to compounder
- Shopee take-rate and EBITDA margin trajectory in the Q3 print - the durability test
- Any sign of renewed subsidy competition from TikTok Shop or Lazada that would revive the bear narrative
- EM/SEA currency and consumption data - a macro crack would hit this beta hard
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
Prediction unavailable. valuation-synthesis has no result for SE — the prediction needs its fair-value anchors.