Made on
Jul 24, 2026
Price at call
$214.22
6-month call
Bear -15.0%
Target by Jan 2027
$182.00
Great value below
$165.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-15.0% to $182.00
Predicted High
$223.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$182.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-15.0%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 24, 2026 8:56 am
Bear
FNV trends lower to
$182.00
(-15.0% from $214.22)
by Jan 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisFNV trades well above every fair-value anchor but sentiment and gold panic-bid dominate near-term; an Aug 2 earnings print with a 3-for-3 beat streak likely sustains momentum through late summer, after which value gravity toward the $155-165 signal-adjusted anchor pulls the tape lower into year-end.
Invalidated ifAn earnings miss or gold reversal breaking $210 support, or conversely a sustained close above $235 on continued gold panic, invalidates the fade thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $214.22 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 24, 2026 | — | $214.22 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 7, 2026 | $197.73–$230.71 typical range · internal point $220.50 | — | ±7.7% | 6/10 | Earnings beat streak plus gold bid lifts pre-print |
| What actually happened: closed $231.08 on Aug 6, 2026 = +7.9% vs the call (predicted +2.9%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 4.9 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±7.7%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +4.0% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 24, 2026 | $190.33–$238.11 typical range · internal point $223.00 | — | ±11.2% | 5/10 | Post-earnings drift higher on platform-monopoly narrative |
| What actually happened: closed $265.74 on Aug 21, 2026 = +24.1% vs the call (predicted +4.1%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 20.0 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±11.2%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +3.5% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Sep 24, 2026 | $215.00 | — | +0.4% | 5/10 | Momentum cools, value gravity starts asserting |
| What actually happened: closed $260.91 on Sep 23, 2026 = +21.8% vs the call (predicted +0.4%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 21.4 pp · accuracy 3/10 · S&P +4.0% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 3 months | Oct 24, 2026 | $205.00 | — | -4.3% | 5/10 | Risk-off regime and rich multiple weigh |
Matured — awaiting scoring. This checkpoint's date has passed; the next scorer run
(score-outcomes.php) records what actually happened.
|
||||||
| 4 months | Nov 24, 2026 | $195.00 | — | -9.0% | 4/10 | Convergence toward signal-adjusted anchor accelerates |
| 5 months | Dec 24, 2026 | $188.00 | — | -12.2% | 4/10 | Year-end de-risking on overvalued royalty names |
| 6 months | Jan 24, 2027 | $182.00 | — | -15.0% | 3/10 | Approaching $165 attractive zone but sentiment cushions |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $204.79 (-4.4%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 2 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
Revenue is volatile and unreliable — growth projections are speculative
-
Note
EPV de-weighted — growth IS the value proposition for this type of company
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $214.22 |
| Composite fair value | $137.41 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $154.45 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $137.41 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $165.00 |
| Value net score | -77 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +100 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 34.8% 3m 38.6% 6m 43.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.25 3m 1.52 5m 1.28 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -15.1% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 24, 2026 | freshest | FNV-20260724-080759-0a2f |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-FNV-20260724-084327-351b |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-FNV-20260724-084327-351b |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-FNV-20260724-084327-351b |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-FNV-20260724-084327-351b |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 24, 2026 | freshest | FNV-20260724-080759-0a2f |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 24, 2026 | freshest | FNV-20260724-080759-0a2f |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $266.62 | $296.00 | +11.0% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Jul 24, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $214.22 | $182.00 | -15.0% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.