Made on
Jul 24, 2026
Price at call
$170.88
6-month call
Neutral +1.5%
Target by Jan 2027
$173.50
Great value below
$150.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+1.5% to $173.50
Predicted High
$173.50
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$163.00
at 2 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-4.6%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 24, 2026 9:01 am
Neutral
BPOP trends range-bound to
$173.50
(+1.5% from $170.88)
by Jan 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisBPOP has run 33% over six months and now sits well above the value lens 'attractive below $150' line while the tape flipped risk-off. With no catalyst on the calendar and quality solid but sentiment flat, expect mild mean-reversion into late summer, then stabilization as the low-beta name reasserts and value buyers step in near $160.
Invalidated ifA decisive break above $180 on volume, or a break below $150 that holds, would falsify the mild-pullback-then-drift thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $170.88 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 24, 2026 | — | $170.88 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 7, 2026 | $164.17–$177.59 typical range · internal point $168.50 | — | ±3.9% | 6/10 | Risk-off regime pressures recent winners modestly |
| What actually happened: closed $176.14 on Aug 6, 2026 = +3.1% vs the call (predicted -1.4%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 4.5 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±3.9%: inside the band · S&P +4.0% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 24, 2026 | $161.16–$180.60 typical range · internal point $165.20 | — | ±5.7% | 6/10 | Continued drift lower absent catalysts, low beta cushions |
| What actually happened: closed $169.07 on Aug 21, 2026 = -1.1% vs the call (predicted -3.3%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.3 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±5.7%: inside the band · S&P +3.5% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Sep 24, 2026 | $163.00 | — | -4.6% | 5/10 | Approaches value-lens zone, quality buyers emerging |
| What actually happened: closed $158.88 on Sep 23, 2026 = -7.0% vs the call (predicted -4.6%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 2.4 pp · accuracy 4/10 · S&P +4.0% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 3 months | Oct 24, 2026 | $166.50 | — | -2.6% | 5/10 | Q3 print potential, beat history supports stabilization |
Matured — awaiting scoring. This checkpoint's date has passed; the next scorer run
(score-outcomes.php) records what actually happened.
|
||||||
| 4 months | Nov 24, 2026 | $169.00 | — | -1.1% | 4/10 | Post-earnings drift, regime uncertainty balances quality |
| 5 months | Dec 24, 2026 | $171.00 | — | +0.1% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, defensive low-beta bid returns |
| 6 months | Jan 24, 2027 | $173.50 | — | +1.5% | 3/10 | Gradual recovery as sentiment normalizes, quality reasserts |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $0.00 (+0.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 4 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
No usable fair-value anchor — brain-only (anchorless) mode: no v0.3 control line, prediction reasons from lenses/sentiment/regime/price behaviour.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: composite_fair_value.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: signal_adjusted.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $170.88 |
| Composite fair value | — |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | — |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | +32 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +72 |
| Memo confidence | — / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 17.4% 3m 19.7% 6m 24.7% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.60 3m 0.32 5m 0.57 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 33.0% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#8eb3df85c300 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jun 7, 2026 | 45d behind | BPOP-20260607-160857-47e5 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jun 30, 2026 | 22d behind | ext-BPOP-20260630-143107-0349 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jun 30, 2026 | 22d behind | ext-BPOP-20260630-143107-0349 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jun 30, 2026 | 22d behind | ext-BPOP-20260630-143107-0349 |
ext-lens-value |
Jun 30, 2026 | 22d behind | ext-BPOP-20260630-143107-0349 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 23, 2026 | freshest | BPOP-20260723-130522-30fd |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 23, 2026 | freshest | BPOP-20260723-130522-30fd |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
4 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.