Made on
Jul 31, 2026
Price at call
$101.14
6-month call
Bull +10.7%
Target by Jan 2027
$112.00
Great value below
$92.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+10.7% to $112.00
Predicted High
$112.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$99.80
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-1.3%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 31, 2026 2:07 am
Bull
ACGL trends higher to
$112.00
(+10.7% from $101.14)
by Jan 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisACGL trades at a deep discount to fair value but sentiment is fading and the tape is neutral with no earnings catalyst in window. Expect a slow drift higher toward the attractive-value zone as quality reasserts, but nowhere near the deterministic baseline's aggressive endpoint - value gravity acts slowly here.
Invalidated ifBreak below $92 on rising volume or a catastrophe-loss disclosure would invalidate the drift-higher thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $101.14 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 31, 2026 | — | $101.14 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 14, 2026 | $96.24–$106.04 typical range · internal point $100.60 | — | ±4.8% | 7/10 | Neutral tape, fading sentiment, low-beta drift sideways |
| What actually happened: closed $98.03 on Aug 13, 2026 = -3.1% vs the call (predicted -0.5%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.5 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±4.8%: inside the band · S&P +4.1% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 31, 2026 | $94.04–$108.24 typical range · internal point $99.80 | — | ±7.0% | 6/10 | Sentiment fatigue nudges toward attractive-value zone |
| What actually happened: closed $98.84 on Aug 28, 2026 = -2.3% vs the call (predicted -1.3%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.0 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±7.0%: inside the band · S&P +3.0% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 1, 2026 | $101.50 | — | +0.4% | 5/10 | Q3 print approaches, quality bid stabilizes shares |
| What actually happened: closed $92.36 on Sep 30, 2026 = -8.7% vs the call (predicted +0.4%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 9.0 pp · accuracy 4/10 · S&P +2.2% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 3 months | Oct 31, 2026 | $105.20 | — | +4.0% | 5/10 | Sixth consecutive EPS beat likely, modest rerating |
Matured — awaiting scoring. This checkpoint's date has passed; the next scorer run
(score-outcomes.php) records what actually happened.
|
||||||
| 4 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $107.80 | — | +6.6% | 4/10 | Post-earnings drift, value gravity begins to pull |
| 5 months | Dec 31, 2026 | $110.50 | — | +9.3% | 4/10 | Year-end quality rotation favors specialty insurer |
| 6 months | Jan 31, 2027 | $112.00 | — | +10.7% | 3/10 | Slow convergence toward fair value continues into 2027 |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $259.24 (+156.3%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $101.14 |
| Composite fair value | $409.53 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $509.13 |
| DCF fair value | $538.14 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $152.30 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $92.00 |
| Value net score | -5 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +76 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 30.0% 3m 24.3% 6m 23.6% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -1.00 3m -0.65 5m -0.27 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 7.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ACGL-20260730-203044-ef69 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-ACGL-20260730-221703-4ae1 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-ACGL-20260730-221703-4ae1 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-ACGL-20260730-221703-4ae1 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-ACGL-20260730-221703-4ae1 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ACGL-20260730-215444-59f1 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ACGL-20260730-215444-59f1 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $97.81 | $110.50 | +13.0% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Jul 31, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $101.14 | $112.00 | +10.7% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.