Made on
Jul 31, 2026
Price at call
$98.88
6-month call
Bull +33.5%
Target by Jan 2027
$132.00
Great value below
$95.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+33.5% to $132.00
Predicted High
$132.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$95.00
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-3.9%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 31, 2026 2:08 am
Bull
NICE trends higher to
$132.00
(+33.5% from $98.88)
by Jan 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisNICE trades at a deep discount to composite fair value ($207) with strong quality (80/100) and 5-of-5 earnings beats, but heavy negative sentiment and a fresh 5.9% drop suggest near-term drift lower before value gravity pulls it higher over the 6-month window. The path is dip-then-recover: sentiment dominates the first month, then mean reversion and earnings catalysts drive a gradual climb well short of the deterministic $164 endpoint.
Invalidated ifA break below $85 on rising volume, or a guidance cut/miss on the next earnings print, would invalidate the recovery thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $98.88 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 31, 2026 | — | $98.88 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 14, 2026 | $84.37–$113.39 typical range · internal point $96.50 | — | ±14.7% | 7/10 | Fresh sentiment shock and momentum extend near-term drift |
| What actually happened: closed $105.25 on Aug 13, 2026 = +6.4% vs the call (predicted -2.4%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 8.9 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±14.7%: inside the band · S&P +4.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 31, 2026 | $77.86–$119.90 typical range · internal point $95.00 | — | ±21.3% | 6/10 | Fallen-angel narrative caps rebound attempts near lows |
| What actually happened: closed $108.84 on Aug 28, 2026 = +10.1% vs the call (predicted -3.9%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 14.0 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±21.3%: inside the band · S&P +3.0% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 1, 2026 | $101.00 | — | +2.1% | 5/10 | Oversold bounce as sellers exhaust below fair value |
| What actually happened: closed $111.27 on Sep 30, 2026 = +12.5% vs the call (predicted +2.1%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 10.4 pp · accuracy 4/10 · S&P +2.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 3 months | Oct 31, 2026 | $108.00 | — | +9.2% | 5/10 | Earnings beat streak reasserts, value buyers step in |
Matured — awaiting scoring. This checkpoint's date has passed; the next scorer run
(score-outcomes.php) records what actually happened.
|
||||||
| 4 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $118.00 | — | +19.3% | 4/10 | Multiple re-rating begins as sentiment stabilizes |
| 5 months | Dec 31, 2026 | $125.00 | — | +26.4% | 4/10 | Year-end quality rotation lifts oversold compounders |
| 6 months | Jan 31, 2027 | $132.00 | — | +33.5% | 3/10 | Gradual convergence toward fair value continues |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $163.64 (+65.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $98.88 |
| Composite fair value | $207.42 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $305.00 |
| DCF fair value | $265.66 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $95.00 |
| Value net score | +51 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +80 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 57.5% 3m 73.7% 6m 63.5% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 4.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -1.64 3m -1.34 5m -0.58 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -11.0% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | NICE-20260730-193151-56c1 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-NICE-20260730-210003-db33 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-NICE-20260730-210003-db33 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-NICE-20260730-210003-db33 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-NICE-20260730-210003-db33 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | NICE-20260730-193151-56c1 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | NICE-20260730-205438-41d0 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
6 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $98.29 | $128.00 | +30.2% | Mar 2027 | view |
| Aug 27, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $104.02 | $134.00 | +28.8% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 25, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $99.26 | $134.00 | +35.0% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 21, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $101.13 | $132.00 | +30.5% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 13, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $98.56 | $140.00 | +42.0% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Jul 31, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $98.88 | $132.00 | +33.5% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.