Made on
Aug 1, 2026
Price at call
$175.21
6-month call
Neutral +4.8%
Target by Feb 2027
$183.60
Great value below
$155.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+4.8% to $183.60
Predicted High
$183.60
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$175.80
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 1, 2026 1:01 am
Neutral
BPOP trends range-bound to
$183.60
(+4.8% from $175.21)
by Feb 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisBPOP is a low-beta compounder trading near composite fair value after a strong 6-month run. Value gravity slowly pulls toward the $180-185 anchor zone, but momentum has largely spent itself and a neutral regime caps upside. Path is a gentle drift higher with modest chop.
Invalidated ifClose below $161.50 (bear scenario) or above $205 breaks the drift thesis; regime shift to risk-off would also invalidate.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $175.21 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 1, 2026 | — | $175.21 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 15, 2026 | $168.67–$181.75 typical range · internal point $175.80 | — | ±3.7% | 7/10 | Low beta, neutral regime, no catalyst; drifts flat |
| What actually happened: closed $177.87 on Aug 14, 2026 = +1.5% vs the call (predicted +0.3%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.2 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±3.7%: inside the band · S&P +4.0% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 1, 2026 | $165.73–$184.69 typical range · internal point $176.90 | — | ±5.4% | 6/10 | Slow grind toward fair value, quiet tape |
| What actually happened: closed $167.23 on Sep 1, 2026 = -4.6% vs the call (predicted +1.0%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 5.5 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±5.4%: inside the band · S&P +1.9% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 1, 2026 | $178.50 | — | +1.9% | 5/10 | Q3 earnings anticipation nudges price higher |
| What actually happened: closed $155.45 on Sep 30, 2026 = -11.3% vs the call (predicted +1.9%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 13.2 pp · accuracy 4/10 · S&P +2.2% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 3 months | Nov 1, 2026 | $180.20 | — | +2.8% | 5/10 | Earnings beat likely given 3 of 4 track record |
Matured — awaiting scoring. This checkpoint's date has passed; the next scorer run
(score-outcomes.php) records what actually happened.
|
||||||
| 4 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $181.50 | — | +3.6% | 4/10 | Post-earnings drift toward composite fair value |
| 5 months | Jan 1, 2027 | $182.80 | — | +4.3% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, boring compounder favored |
| 6 months | Feb 1, 2027 | $183.60 | — | +4.8% | 3/10 | Converges near DCF and composite anchors |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $182.50 (+4.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $175.21 |
| Composite fair value | $180.70 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $204.27 |
| DCF fair value | $184.58 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $172.93 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $155.00 |
| Value net score | +24 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +38 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 16.8% 3m 18.7% 6m 22.6% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.98 3m 0.39 5m 0.53 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 31.5% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | BPOP-20260730-180457-6dfa |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-BPOP-20260730-184535-1d9b |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-BPOP-20260730-184535-1d9b |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-BPOP-20260730-184535-1d9b |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-BPOP-20260730-184535-1d9b |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | BPOP-20260730-180457-6dfa |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | BPOP-20260730-180457-6dfa |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
4 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.