Made on
Aug 1, 2026
Price at call
$9.16
6-month call
Bull +25.5%
Target by Feb 2027
$11.50
Great value below
$8.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+25.5% to $11.50
Predicted High
$11.50
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$9.25
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 1, 2026 1:02 am
Bull
UPWK trends higher to
$11.50
(+25.5% from $9.16)
by Feb 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisUPWK trades at a steep discount to composite fair value ($12.21) and DCF ($15.76) after a brutal -56% six-month drawdown, with quality and forensic profile decent and earnings beats in every recent quarter. Neutral regime and zero sentiment suggest no near-term catalyst, so the path drifts sideways-to-slightly-up initially, then grinds toward value as an earnings print inside the window reprices the name.
Invalidated ifA close below $7.30 (bear scenario) or a Q3/Q4 revenue miss would invalidate the value-convergence thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $9.16 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 1, 2026 | — | $9.16 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 15, 2026 | $8.02–$10.30 typical range · internal point $9.25 | — | ±12.4% | 7/10 | Neutral regime, oversold bounce stalling near current levels |
| What actually happened: closed $8.49 on Aug 14, 2026 = -7.3% vs the call (predicted +1.0%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 8.3 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±12.4%: inside the band · S&P +4.0% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 1, 2026 | $7.51–$10.81 typical range · internal point $9.40 | — | ±18.0% | 6/10 | Drift as no catalyst, mean reversion from deep drawdown |
| What actually happened: closed $9.19 on Sep 1, 2026 = +0.3% vs the call (predicted +2.6%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.3 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±18.0%: inside the band · S&P +1.9% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 1, 2026 | $9.80 | — | +7.0% | 5/10 | Pre-earnings positioning, value buyers step in below $10 |
| What actually happened: closed $8.16 on Sep 30, 2026 = -10.9% vs the call (predicted +7.0%) · direction MISS (called up, was down) · off by 17.9 pp · accuracy 4/10 · S&P +2.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 3 months | Nov 1, 2026 | $10.60 | — | +15.7% | 5/10 | Q3 print likely beats, fifth straight beat reprices |
Matured — awaiting scoring. This checkpoint's date has passed; the next scorer run
(score-outcomes.php) records what actually happened.
|
||||||
| 4 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $10.90 | — | +19.0% | 4/10 | Post-earnings digestion, sentiment slowly turning |
| 5 months | Jan 1, 2027 | $11.20 | — | +22.3% | 4/10 | Value gravity toward anchored-PE and signal-adjusted fair value |
| 6 months | Feb 1, 2027 | $11.50 | — | +25.5% | 3/10 | Continued grind toward composite fair value $12.21 |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $11.15 (+21.8%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $9.16 |
| Composite fair value | $12.21 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $11.91 |
| DCF fair value | $15.76 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $10.98 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $8.00 |
| Value net score | +23 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +36 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 48.3% 3m 62.3% 6m 66.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.9% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.34 3m -0.23 5m 0.50 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -56.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | UPWK-20260730-170257-0649 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-UPWK-20260730-171811-43d9 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-UPWK-20260730-171811-43d9 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-UPWK-20260730-171811-43d9 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-UPWK-20260730-171811-43d9 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | UPWK-20260730-170257-0649 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | UPWK-20260730-170257-0649 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
4 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.