Made on
Aug 10, 2026
Price at call
$178.07
6-month call
Bear -13.5%
Target by Feb 2027
$154.00
Great value below
$130.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-13.5% to $154.00
Predicted High
$184.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$154.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-13.5%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 10, 2026 12:56 am
Bear
ABNB trends lower to
$154.00
(-13.5% from $178.07)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisABNB is materially overvalued vs fair value ($36) but ridden by AI narrative, blowout print, and risk-on tape. Momentum and sentiment likely extend near-term, then value gravity and narrative decay pull it lower toward the deterministic baseline over months 3-6.
Invalidated ifA break above $200 on sustained volume or a decisive close below $155 in first 6 weeks would invalidate the ride-then-fade thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $178.07 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 10, 2026 | — | $178.07 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 24, 2026 | $162.43–$193.71 typical range · internal point $182.50 | — | ±8.8% | 7/10 | Momentum and risk-on tape extend post-print rally |
| What actually happened: closed $187.30 on Aug 21, 2026 = +5.2% vs the call (predicted +2.5%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 2.7 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±8.8%: inside the band · S&P -1.0% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 10, 2026 | $155.40–$200.74 typical range · internal point $184.00 | — | ±12.7% | 6/10 | AI narrative peaks, buyers still active |
| What actually happened: closed $169.63 on Sep 9, 2026 = -4.7% vs the call (predicted +3.3%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 8.1 pp · accuracy 7/10 · typical range ±12.7%: inside the band · S&P -1.5% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 10, 2026 | $178.00 | — | +0.0% | 5/10 | Momentum stalls near resistance, first profit-taking |
| What actually happened: closed $165.87 on Oct 9, 2026 = -6.9% vs the call (predicted 0.0%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 6.8 pp · accuracy 4/10 · S&P +0.8% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 3 months | Nov 10, 2026 | $170.00 | — | -4.5% | 5/10 | Narrative fades, valuation concerns resurface |
| 4 months | Dec 10, 2026 | $164.00 | — | -7.9% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, mean-reversion pressure builds |
| 5 months | Jan 10, 2027 | $158.00 | — | -11.3% | 4/10 | Value gravity drags toward deterministic anchor |
| 6 months | Feb 10, 2027 | $154.00 | — | -13.5% | 4/10 | Converges near baseline as premium compresses |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $153.74 (-13.7%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 2 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $178.07 |
| Composite fair value | $36.38 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $33.25 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $130.00 |
| Value net score | -57 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +66 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 60.4% 3m 44.1% 6m 39.2% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.8% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.72 3m 0.77 5m 1.10 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 46.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | ABNB-20260810-000802-1d58 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | ext-ABNB-20260810-004545-94e8 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | ext-ABNB-20260810-004545-94e8 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | ext-ABNB-20260810-004545-94e8 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | ext-ABNB-20260810-004545-94e8 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | ABNB-20260810-000802-1d58 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | ABNB-20260810-000802-1d58 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 10, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $178.07 | $154.00 | -13.5% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 11, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.