TTD
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The Trade Desk, Inc. Class A Common Stock
Communication Services · Advertising Agencies
Made on
Aug 13, 2026
Price at call
$13.49
6-month call
Bull +43.8%
Target by Feb 2027
$19.40
Great value below
$18.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+43.8% to $19.40
Predicted High
$19.40
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$12.80
in 2 weeks
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-5.1%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 13, 2026 1:00 am
Bull
TTD trends higher to
$19.40
(+43.8% from $13.49)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisTTD is a freshly capitulated fallen-angel trading at roughly half of composite fair value after an earnings miss and competitive-threat narrative. Near-term tape stays heavy as sentiment is deeply negative and no catalyst is on the calendar, but with beta only 0.51 and a risk-on regime, value gravity pulls it back toward the high-teens/low-20s over the six-month window as the shock digests.
Invalidated ifA close below $8.72 (bear scenario) or a new guide cut would falsify; failure to reclaim $15 by m3 would also weaken the recovery leg.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $13.49 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 13, 2026 | — | $13.49 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 27, 2026 | $11.55–$15.43 typical range · internal point $12.80 | — | ±14.4% | 6/10 | Sentiment overhang, no catalyst, tape-bomb momentum persists |
| What actually happened: closed $13.03 on Aug 26, 2026 = -3.4% vs the call (predicted -5.1%) · direction MISS (called down, was flat) · off by 1.7 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±14.4%: inside the band · S&P -1.6% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 13, 2026 | $10.67–$16.31 typical range · internal point $13.20 | — | ±20.9% | 5/10 | Base-building near lows as forced selling exhausts |
| What actually happened: closed $14.34 on Sep 11, 2026 = +6.3% vs the call (predicted -2.2%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 8.5 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±20.9%: inside the band · S&P -1.8% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 13, 2026 | $14.60 | — | +8.2% | 5/10 | Value buyers step in below $18 attractive zone |
| What actually happened: closed $11.94 on Oct 12, 2026 = -11.5% vs the call (predicted +8.2%) · direction MISS (called up, was down) · off by 19.7 pp · accuracy 4/10 · S&P +0.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 3 months | Nov 13, 2026 | $16.20 | — | +20.1% | 5/10 | Earnings print resets narrative, low bar helps |
| 4 months | Dec 13, 2026 | $17.50 | — | +29.7% | 4/10 | Recovery extends as competitive fears moderate |
| 5 months | Jan 13, 2027 | $18.60 | — | +37.9% | 4/10 | Value gravity toward composite fair value continues |
| 6 months | Feb 13, 2027 | $19.40 | — | +43.8% | 4/10 | Converges near deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $19.23 (+42.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $13.49 |
| Composite fair value | $25.74 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $30.01 |
| DCF fair value | $27.36 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $41.14 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $18.00 |
| Value net score | +38 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +58 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 96.8% 3m 72.3% 6m 67.6% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 4.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.18 3m 0.51 5m 0.56 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -52.0% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | 13d behind | TTD-20260730-143259-1bed |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 13, 2026 | freshest | ext-TTD-20260813-002808-1c7e |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 13, 2026 | freshest | ext-TTD-20260813-002808-1c7e |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 13, 2026 | freshest | ext-TTD-20260813-002808-1c7e |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 13, 2026 | freshest | ext-TTD-20260813-002808-1c7e |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 13, 2026 | freshest | TTD-20260813-001111-7624 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 13, 2026 | freshest | TTD-20260813-001111-7624 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
7 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $14.44 | $18.40 | +27.4% | Mar 2027 | view |
| Aug 31, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $13.78 | $16.60 | +20.5% | Mar 2027 | view |
| Aug 27, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $13.55 | $16.50 | +21.8% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 26, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $13.00 | $16.40 | +26.2% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 25, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $13.16 | $17.60 | +33.7% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 13, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $13.49 | $19.40 | +43.8% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 4, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Neutral | $19.10 | $19.33 | +1.2% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.