UHS
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Universal Health Services Inc. Class B Common Stock
Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities
Made on
Aug 13, 2026
Price at call
$172.45
6-month call
Bull +14.2%
Target by Feb 2027
$197.00
Great value below
$160.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+14.2% to $197.00
Predicted High
$197.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$170.50
in 2 weeks
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-1.1%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 13, 2026 1:03 am
Bull
UHS trends higher to
$197.00
(+14.2% from $172.45)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisUHS trades well below composite fair value near $216 after a 20% drawdown, but fading for-profit hospital sentiment and fresh sell-side downgrades cap near-term recovery. Value gravity gradually pulls the price higher over 6 months, though not fully to fair value given persistent narrative headwinds.
Invalidated ifA break below $160 on volume, or a policy shock to hospital reimbursement, would falsify the mean-reversion thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $172.45 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 13, 2026 | — | $172.45 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 27, 2026 | $161.31–$183.59 typical range · internal point $170.50 | — | ±6.5% | 6/10 | Sentiment drag and downgrade press keep pressure on |
| What actually happened: closed $178.69 on Aug 26, 2026 = +3.6% vs the call (predicted -1.1%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 4.8 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±6.5%: inside the band · S&P -1.6% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 13, 2026 | $156.30–$188.60 typical range · internal point $172.00 | — | ±9.4% | 5/10 | Stabilization near current level as selling exhausts |
| What actually happened: closed $174.83 on Sep 11, 2026 = +1.4% vs the call (predicted -0.3%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.6 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±9.4%: inside the band · S&P -1.8% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 13, 2026 | $176.00 | — | +2.1% | 5/10 | Risk-on tape and low beta allow modest drift up |
| What actually happened: closed $178.83 on Oct 12, 2026 = +3.7% vs the call (predicted +2.1%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.6 pp · accuracy 10/10 · S&P +0.1% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 3 months | Nov 13, 2026 | $182.00 | — | +5.5% | 5/10 | Q3 earnings window; value buyers begin stepping in |
| 4 months | Dec 13, 2026 | $188.00 | — | +9.0% | 4/10 | Value gravity accelerates as narrative fatigue eases |
| 5 months | Jan 13, 2027 | $193.00 | — | +11.9% | 4/10 | Continued convergence toward fair value anchors |
| 6 months | Feb 13, 2027 | $197.00 | — | +14.2% | 4/10 | Approaches deterministic baseline but sentiment caps upside |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $198.46 (+15.1%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $172.45 |
| Composite fair value | $216.12 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $226.06 |
| DCF fair value | $229.64 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $160.00 |
| Value net score | +42 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +51 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 31.6% 3m 32.4% 6m 37.8% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.33 3m -0.21 5m 0.15 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -19.0% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | 9d behind | UHS-20260803-124447-f0e2 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 13, 2026 | freshest | ext-UHS-20260813-004953-d1e4 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 13, 2026 | freshest | ext-UHS-20260813-004953-d1e4 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 13, 2026 | freshest | ext-UHS-20260813-004953-d1e4 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 13, 2026 | freshest | ext-UHS-20260813-004953-d1e4 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 13, 2026 | freshest | UHS-20260813-001452-978a |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 13, 2026 | freshest | UHS-20260813-001452-978a |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
5 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $179.16 | $195.50 | +9.1% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 25, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $176.19 | $198.50 | +12.7% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 20, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $173.28 | $197.50 | +14.0% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 13, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $172.45 | $197.00 | +14.2% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Aug 4, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $169.04 | $203.00 | +20.1% | Feb 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.