Made on
Aug 13, 2026
Price at call
$140.38
6-month call
Bull +17.5%
Target by Feb 2027
$165.00
Great value below
$130.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+17.5% to $165.00
Predicted High
$165.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$142.50
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 13, 2026 1:04 am
Bull
LDOS trends higher to
$165.00
(+17.5% from $140.38)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisLDOS trades well below composite fair value ($172) with a risk-on tape, recent Q2 beat, and AI-defense tailwind supporting a gradual re-rating. Near-term momentum from the beat carries prices modestly higher, then value gravity toward $170s dominates over the 6-month window.
Invalidated ifA break below $130 on volume or a defense budget shock/contract loss would falsify upward drift; regime flip to risk-off also negates.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $140.38 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 13, 2026 | — | $140.38 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 27, 2026 | $129.24–$151.52 typical range · internal point $142.50 | — | ±7.9% | 6/10 | Post-beat drift continues in risk-on tape |
| What actually happened: closed $137.43 on Aug 26, 2026 = -2.1% vs the call (predicted +1.5%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.6 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±7.9%: inside the band · S&P -1.6% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 13, 2026 | $124.24–$156.52 typical range · internal point $145.00 | — | ±11.5% | 6/10 | Momentum plus AI-cloud defense narrative supports grind higher |
| What actually happened: closed $128.86 on Sep 11, 2026 = -8.2% vs the call (predicted +3.3%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 11.5 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±11.5%: inside the band · S&P -1.8% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 13, 2026 | $149.50 | — | +6.5% | 5/10 | Value gap begins closing as buyers step in |
| What actually happened: closed $121.60 on Oct 12, 2026 = -13.4% vs the call (predicted +6.5%) · direction MISS (called up, was down) · off by 19.9 pp · accuracy 4/10 · S&P +0.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 3 months | Nov 13, 2026 | $154.00 | — | +9.7% | 5/10 | Next earnings window; beat history supports move |
| 4 months | Dec 13, 2026 | $158.50 | — | +12.9% | 4/10 | Continued re-rating toward composite fair value |
| 5 months | Jan 13, 2027 | $162.00 | — | +15.4% | 4/10 | Value gravity dominates; low beta smooths path |
| 6 months | Feb 13, 2027 | $165.00 | — | +17.5% | 4/10 | Converges near deterministic baseline below fair value |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $163.54 (+16.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $140.38 |
| Composite fair value | $172.12 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $201.09 |
| DCF fair value | $197.52 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $179.67 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $130.00 |
| Value net score | +38 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +63 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 46.4% 3m 39.8% 6m 41.8% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.85 3m 0.62 5m 0.37 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -27.9% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | 9d behind | LDOS-20260803-122903-4371 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 13, 2026 | freshest | ext-LDOS-20260813-004947-8153 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 13, 2026 | freshest | ext-LDOS-20260813-004947-8153 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 13, 2026 | freshest | ext-LDOS-20260813-004947-8153 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 13, 2026 | freshest | ext-LDOS-20260813-004947-8153 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 13, 2026 | freshest | LDOS-20260813-001432-6ac6 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
6 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $142.28 | $164.50 | +15.6% | Mar 2027 | view |
| Aug 27, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $140.34 | $164.00 | +16.9% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 25, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $134.81 | $162.50 | +20.5% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 20, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $142.04 | $168.50 | +18.6% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 13, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $140.38 | $165.00 | +17.5% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Aug 5, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $130.60 | $157.50 | +20.6% | Feb 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.