ZTS
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Zoetis Inc. Class A Common Stock
Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Made on
Aug 13, 2026
Price at call
$73.54
6-month call
Bull +12.6%
Target by Feb 2027
$82.80
Great value below
$60.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+12.6% to $82.80
Predicted High
$82.80
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$73.90
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 13, 2026 1:04 am
Bull
ZTS trends higher to
$82.80
(+12.6% from $73.54)
by Feb 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisZTS is a high-quality animal-health compounder trading at a deep discount after a 42% drawdown, but sentiment is broken and there is no near-term catalyst. Expect base-building near current levels for weeks, then a gradual mean-reversion toward the composite fair value as the risk-on tape and quality bid re-emerge.
Invalidated ifA break below $65 on new guide-down news, or failure to reclaim $78 by month 3, would invalidate the recovery thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $73.54 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 13, 2026 | — | $73.54 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 27, 2026 | $68.82–$78.26 typical range · internal point $73.90 | — | ±6.4% | 6/10 | Base-building near lows, no catalyst, low beta |
| What actually happened: closed $77.52 on Aug 26, 2026 = +5.4% vs the call (predicted +0.5%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 4.9 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±6.4%: inside the band · S&P -1.6% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 13, 2026 | $66.69–$80.39 typical range · internal point $74.80 | — | ±9.3% | 5/10 | Sentiment stabilizing, risk-on tape supportive |
| What actually happened: closed $72.97 on Sep 11, 2026 = -0.8% vs the call (predicted +1.7%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.5 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±9.3%: inside the band · S&P -1.8% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 13, 2026 | $76.50 | — | +4.0% | 5/10 | Signal-adjusted fair value pulls price higher |
| What actually happened: closed $75.65 on Oct 12, 2026 = +2.9% vs the call (predicted +4.0%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.2 pp · accuracy 10/10 · S&P +0.1% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 3 months | Nov 13, 2026 | $78.20 | — | +6.3% | 4/10 | Q3 print approaches, quality bid returns |
| 4 months | Dec 13, 2026 | $80.00 | — | +8.8% | 4/10 | Earnings beat likely, guide reset digested |
| 5 months | Jan 13, 2027 | $81.50 | — | +10.8% | 4/10 | Value convergence toward DCF anchor |
| 6 months | Feb 13, 2027 | $82.80 | — | +12.6% | 3/10 | Gradual re-rating toward composite fair value |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $80.72 (+9.8%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $73.54 |
| Composite fair value | $85.65 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $76.88 |
| DCF fair value | $82.02 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $60.00 |
| Value net score | +4 |
| Value confidence | 5 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +69 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 35.3% 3m 32.3% 6m 46.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.56 3m -0.30 5m 0.42 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -42.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | 13d behind | ZTS-20260730-170254-8439 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 13, 2026 | freshest | ext-ZTS-20260813-002809-477c |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 13, 2026 | freshest | ext-ZTS-20260813-002809-477c |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 13, 2026 | freshest | ext-ZTS-20260813-002809-477c |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 13, 2026 | freshest | ext-ZTS-20260813-002809-477c |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 13, 2026 | freshest | ZTS-20260813-001151-fb8a |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 13, 2026 | freshest | ZTS-20260813-001151-fb8a |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
4 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.