Made on
Aug 14, 2026
Price at call
$110.06
6-month call
Bull +22.2%
Target by Feb 2027
$134.50
Great value below
$95.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+22.2% to $134.50
Predicted High
$134.50
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$112.20
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 14, 2026 3:26 am
Bull
SCHW trends higher to
$134.50
(+22.2% from $110.06)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisSCHW sits well below composite fair value with strong momentum, risk-on tape, and a clean earnings track record. Expect steady grind higher toward the deterministic baseline as value gravity and sentiment reinforce, with mild deceleration in later months as gap narrows.
Invalidated ifRegime flip to risk-off, break below $102 support, or a Q3 earnings miss (first in 6 quarters)
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $110.06 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 14, 2026 | — | $110.06 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 28, 2026 | $104.72–$115.40 typical range · internal point $112.20 | — | ±4.9% | 7/10 | Momentum and risk-on tape carry near term |
| What actually happened: closed $108.05 on Aug 27, 2026 = -1.8% vs the call (predicted +1.9%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.8 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±4.9%: inside the band · S&P -0.7% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 14, 2026 | $102.32–$117.80 typical range · internal point $114.80 | — | ±7.0% | 6/10 | Steady grind, no catalyst, sentiment tailwind |
| What actually happened: closed $107.25 on Sep 11, 2026 = -2.6% vs the call (predicted +4.3%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 6.9 pp · accuracy 7/10 · typical range ±7.0%: inside the band · S&P -1.7% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 14, 2026 | $118.50 | — | +7.7% | 5/10 | October earnings likely beat continues streak |
Matured — awaiting scoring. This checkpoint's date has passed; the next scorer run
(score-outcomes.php) records what actually happened.
|
||||||
| 3 months | Nov 14, 2026 | $123.00 | — | +11.8% | 5/10 | Post-print re-rating toward fair value |
| 4 months | Dec 14, 2026 | $127.50 | — | +15.8% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, value gap closes further |
| 5 months | Jan 14, 2027 | $131.00 | — | +19.0% | 4/10 | January flows, convergence toward baseline |
| 6 months | Feb 14, 2027 | $134.50 | — | +22.2% | 3/10 | Approaching deterministic endpoint, momentum fades |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $137.56 (+25.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $110.06 |
| Composite fair value | $181.54 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $197.14 |
| DCF fair value | $155.56 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $233.50 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $95.00 |
| Value net score | +28 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +65 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 17.1% 3m 24.4% 6m 26.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.14 3m -0.21 5m 0.12 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 15.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 4, 2026 | 10d behind | SCHW-20260804-002630-6c95 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 12, 2026 | 1d behind | ext-SCHW-20260812-132402-7ef8 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 12, 2026 | 1d behind | ext-SCHW-20260812-132402-7ef8 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 12, 2026 | 1d behind | ext-SCHW-20260812-132402-7ef8 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 12, 2026 | 1d behind | ext-SCHW-20260812-132402-7ef8 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 14, 2026 | freshest | SCHW-20260804-002630-6c95 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
9 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $104.88 | $134.00 | +27.8% | Mar 2027 | view |
| Sep 5, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $109.28 | $133.00 | +21.7% | Mar 2027 | view |
| Aug 31, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $109.92 | $126.50 | +15.1% | Mar 2027 | view |
| Aug 27, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $108.04 | $126.00 | +16.6% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 24, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $113.10 | $132.00 | +16.7% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 19, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $110.86 | $133.50 | +20.4% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 14, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $110.06 | $134.50 | +22.2% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Aug 4, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $105.87 | $123.50 | +16.7% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Jun 29, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Neutral | $90.67 | $93.34 | +2.9% | Dec 2026 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.