GOOGL
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Alphabet Inc. Class A Common Stock
Communication Services · Internet Content & Information
Made on
Aug 18, 2026
Price at call
$344.00
6-month call
Neutral -4.7%
Target by Feb 2027
$328.00
Great value below
$260.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-4.7% to $328.00
Predicted High
$353.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$328.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-4.7%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 18, 2026 3:07 am
Neutral
GOOGL trends range-bound to
$328.00
(-4.7% from $344.00)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisStrong momentum, risk-on tape, and the durable AI hyperscaler narrative with a Berkshire endorsement should carry GOOGL modestly higher near-term, but rich valuation versus fair value anchors and mild regulatory static create a slow value-gravity fade over months toward, but not fully to, the deterministic baseline.
Invalidated ifA close below $310 breaking the uptrend, or an adverse DOJ remedy ruling, or regime flip to risk-off would invalidate the ride-then-fade path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $344.00 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 18, 2026 | — | $344.00 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 1, 2026 | $318.53–$369.47 typical range · internal point $349.00 | — | ±7.4% | 7/10 | Momentum and risk-on tape extend recent uptrend |
| What actually happened: closed $335.02 on Sep 1, 2026 = -2.6% vs the call (predicted +1.5%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 4.1 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±7.4%: inside the band · S&P -0.8% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 18, 2026 | $307.09–$380.91 typical range · internal point $353.00 | — | ±10.7% | 6/10 | AI narrative and Berkshire halo keep bid firm |
| What actually happened: closed $347.33 on Sep 17, 2026 = +1.0% vs the call (predicted +2.6%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.7 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±10.7%: inside the band · S&P -0.7% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 18, 2026 | $350.00 | — | +1.7% | 5/10 | Consolidation as valuation stretch attracts skepticism |
Matured — awaiting scoring. This checkpoint's date has passed; the next scorer run
(score-outcomes.php) records what actually happened.
|
||||||
| 3 months | Nov 18, 2026 | $342.00 | — | -0.6% | 5/10 | Pre-earnings drift, mild regulatory headline pressure |
| 4 months | Dec 18, 2026 | $338.00 | — | -1.7% | 4/10 | Post-print digestion, value gravity begins pulling |
| 5 months | Jan 18, 2027 | $332.00 | — | -3.5% | 4/10 | January rebalancing trims mega-cap winners |
| 6 months | Feb 18, 2027 | $328.00 | — | -4.7% | 4/10 | Slow drift toward fair-value anchors, still above baseline |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $317.79 (-7.6%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $344.00 |
| Composite fair value | $214.92 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $223.71 |
| DCF fair value | $129.69 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $531.12 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $260.00 |
| Value net score | -71 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +86 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 45.9% 3m 37.2% 6m 35.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.3% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.59 3m 1.28 5m 1.55 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 12.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 29, 2026 | 20d behind | GOOGL-20260729-000735-155a |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-GOOGL-20260817-130645-0050 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-GOOGL-20260817-130645-0050 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-GOOGL-20260817-130645-0050 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-GOOGL-20260817-130645-0050 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 18, 2026 | freshest | GOOGL-20260729-000735-155a |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 18, 2026 | freshest | GOOGL-20260729-000735-155a |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
4 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.