Made on
Aug 18, 2026
Price at call
$43.19
6-month call
Bull +13.0%
Target by Feb 2027
$48.80
Great value below
$38.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+13.0% to $48.80
Predicted High
$48.80
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$42.20
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-2.3%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 18, 2026 3:08 am
Bull
BKE trends higher to
$48.80
(+13.0% from $43.19)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisBKE trades well below composite fair value ($57.58) with consistent EPS beats, but sentiment is negative and momentum poor (-18.7% 6mo). Expect a slow drift lower or sideways near-term as the forgotten-retailer narrative persists, then gradual mean reversion toward mid-$40s to high-$40s as value gravity and dividend support pull it up over months. No catalysts visible near-term.
Invalidated ifClose below $37 (breakdown of value floor) or above $52 (momentum re-rating) would falsify this measured recovery path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $43.19 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 18, 2026 | — | $43.19 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 1, 2026 | $40.15–$46.23 typical range · internal point $42.70 | — | ±7.0% | 6/10 | Weak momentum persists, no catalyst in near tape |
| What actually happened: closed $42.47 on Sep 1, 2026 = -1.7% vs the call (predicted -1.1%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.5 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±7.0%: inside the band · S&P -0.8% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 18, 2026 | $38.78–$47.60 typical range · internal point $42.20 | — | ±10.2% | 5/10 | Sentiment drag continues, value buyers not yet active |
| What actually happened: closed $40.32 on Sep 17, 2026 = -6.7% vs the call (predicted -2.3%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 4.4 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±10.2%: inside the band · S&P -0.7% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 18, 2026 | $43.40 | — | +0.5% | 4/10 | Q3 earnings likely beat, mild lift from print |
Matured — awaiting scoring. This checkpoint's date has passed; the next scorer run
(score-outcomes.php) records what actually happened.
|
||||||
| 3 months | Nov 18, 2026 | $44.80 | — | +3.7% | 4/10 | Post-earnings drift, dividend visibility supports |
| 4 months | Dec 18, 2026 | $46.20 | — | +7.0% | 4/10 | Holiday sales read, value gravity begins working |
| 5 months | Jan 18, 2027 | $47.50 | — | +10.0% | 3/10 | Mean reversion toward fair value continues |
| 6 months | Feb 18, 2027 | $48.80 | — | +13.0% | 3/10 | Gradual re-rating toward deterministic baseline |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $50.48 (+16.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $43.19 |
| Composite fair value | $57.58 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $59.93 |
| DCF fair value | $60.11 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $66.74 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $38.00 |
| Value net score | +28 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +48 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 32.9% 3m 35.3% 6m 32.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.48 3m 0.10 5m 0.54 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -18.7% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | 13d behind | BKE-20260803-164946-3ed1 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-BKE-20260817-123649-897a |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-BKE-20260817-123649-897a |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-BKE-20260817-123649-897a |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-BKE-20260817-123649-897a |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | BKE-20260803-164946-3ed1 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | BKE-20260803-164946-3ed1 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
6 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $43.17 | $49.75 | +15.2% | Mar 2027 | view |
| Aug 31, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $42.96 | $49.50 | +15.2% | Mar 2027 | view |
| Aug 27, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $43.22 | $50.50 | +16.8% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 23, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $43.75 | $52.25 | +19.4% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 18, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $43.19 | $48.80 | +13.0% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Aug 4, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $46.10 | $52.50 | +13.9% | Feb 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.