UHS
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Universal Health Services Inc. Class B Common Stock
Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities
Made on
Aug 20, 2026
Price at call
$173.28
6-month call
Bull +14.0%
Target by Feb 2027
$197.50
Great value below
$165.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+14.0% to $197.50
Predicted High
$197.50
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$174.50
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 20, 2026 1:04 pm
Bull
UHS trends higher to
$197.50
(+14.0% from $173.28)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisUHS trades well below fair value anchors after a 27% drawdown, and a risk-on regime plus quiet sentiment supports gradual mean reversion toward the deterministic $197 endpoint. Early drift is muted with no catalyst on deck; value gravity dominates over months as the fallen-angel narrative slowly repairs.
Invalidated ifA break below $165 on rising volume or a broad regime flip to risk-off would falsify the recovery path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $173.28 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 20, 2026 | — | $173.28 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 3, 2026 | $162.12–$184.44 typical range · internal point $174.50 | — | ±6.4% | 6/10 | Quiet tape, no catalyst, modest drift higher |
| What actually happened: closed $167.49 on Sep 2, 2026 = -3.3% vs the call (predicted +0.7%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 4.1 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±6.4%: inside the band · S&P +0.3% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 20, 2026 | $157.11–$189.45 typical range · internal point $177.00 | — | ±9.3% | 5/10 | Risk-on regime supports gentle mean reversion |
| What actually happened: closed $176.69 on Sep 18, 2026 = +2.0% vs the call (predicted +2.2%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.2 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±9.3%: inside the band · S&P +0.1% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 20, 2026 | $182.00 | — | +5.0% | 5/10 | Value buyers accumulate below fair value anchors |
Matured — awaiting scoring. This checkpoint's date has passed; the next scorer run
(score-outcomes.php) records what actually happened.
|
||||||
| 3 months | Nov 20, 2026 | $187.50 | — | +8.2% | 4/10 | Q3 print potential catalyst, oversold reversal continues |
| 4 months | Dec 20, 2026 | $191.00 | — | +10.2% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning favors fallen angels |
| 5 months | Jan 20, 2027 | $194.50 | — | +12.2% | 3/10 | January rotation into laggards, value gap closes |
| 6 months | Feb 20, 2027 | $197.50 | — | +14.0% | 3/10 | Convergence toward deterministic fair value endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $196.97 (+13.7%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $173.28 |
| Composite fair value | $213.57 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $286.56 |
| DCF fair value | $225.82 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $165.00 |
| Value net score | +37 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +46 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 28.9% 3m 32.3% 6m 35.8% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.12 3m -0.11 5m 0.21 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -26.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | 16d behind | UHS-20260803-124447-f0e2 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-UHS-20260820-105823-147d |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-UHS-20260820-105823-147d |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-UHS-20260820-105823-147d |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-UHS-20260820-105823-147d |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | UHS-20260820-010443-49fd |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | UHS-20260820-010443-49fd |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
5 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $179.16 | $195.50 | +9.1% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 25, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $176.19 | $198.50 | +12.7% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 20, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $173.28 | $197.50 | +14.0% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Aug 13, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $172.45 | $197.00 | +14.2% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 4, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $169.04 | $203.00 | +20.1% | Feb 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.