Made on
Aug 21, 2026
Price at call
$120.23
6-month call
Bull +23.9%
Target by Feb 2027
$149.00
Great value below
$135.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+23.9% to $149.00
Predicted High
$149.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$115.00
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-4.3%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 21, 2026 1:03 pm
Bull
LULU trends higher to
$149.00
(+23.9% from $120.23)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisLULU is deeply oversold with a fallen-angel narrative pressing shares below fair value estimates near $186-211. Expect near-term sentiment drag to persist, then gradual mean-reversion toward the deterministic baseline as value gravity and earnings beats reassert. Path drifts lower first, then recovers through Q4 and into early 2027.
Invalidated ifA break below $105 on heavy volume, or a guide-down at next print, invalidates the recovery thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $120.23 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 21, 2026 | — | $120.23 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 4, 2026 | $110.61–$129.85 typical range · internal point $117.50 | — | ±8.0% | 7/10 | Sentiment overhang and momentum continue pressing shares |
| What actually happened: closed $121.77 on Sep 3, 2026 = +1.3% vs the call (predicted -2.3%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.6 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±8.0%: inside the band · S&P -0.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 21, 2026 | $106.28–$134.18 typical range · internal point $115.00 | — | ±11.6% | 6/10 | Fallen-angel narrative persists, tests attractive-below level |
| What actually happened: closed $98.06 on Sep 18, 2026 = -18.4% vs the call (predicted -4.4%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 14.1 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±11.6%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -0.3% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 21, 2026 | $121.00 | — | +0.6% | 5/10 | Oversold bounce as value buyers step in |
Matured — awaiting scoring. This checkpoint's date has passed; the next scorer run
(score-outcomes.php) records what actually happened.
|
||||||
| 3 months | Nov 21, 2026 | $130.00 | — | +8.1% | 5/10 | Holiday read and earnings catalyst lift shares |
| 4 months | Dec 21, 2026 | $138.00 | — | +14.8% | 4/10 | Post-print momentum if beat streak continues |
| 5 months | Jan 21, 2027 | $144.00 | — | +19.8% | 4/10 | Value gravity pulls toward fair-value anchors |
| 6 months | Feb 21, 2027 | $149.00 | — | +23.9% | 4/10 | Convergence toward deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $149.72 (+24.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $120.23 |
| Composite fair value | $186.43 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $211.35 |
| DCF fair value | $194.80 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $194.14 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $135.00 |
| Value net score | +38 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +33 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 35.6% 3m 40.2% 6m 43.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.90 3m 0.90 5m 1.27 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -36.7% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 15, 2026 | 5d behind | LULU-20260815-111314-403f |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-LULU-20260820-202807-d0f9 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-LULU-20260820-202807-d0f9 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-LULU-20260820-202807-d0f9 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-LULU-20260820-202807-d0f9 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | LULU-20260820-200642-15b3 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | LULU-20260820-200642-15b3 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
7 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $121.15 | $150.50 | +24.2% | Mar 2027 | view |
| Aug 29, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $120.81 | $152.00 | +25.8% | Mar 2027 | view |
| Aug 27, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $116.80 | $150.00 | +28.4% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 26, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $117.12 | $142.00 | +21.2% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 25, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $118.06 | $147.00 | +24.5% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 21, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $120.23 | $149.00 | +23.9% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Aug 17, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.