Made on
Jun 20, 2026
Price at call
$118.24
6-month call
Bear -11.7%
Target by Dec 2026
$104.36
Great value below
$85.00
Model
v0.3.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast
One directional 6-month call and the six monthly points we'll be scored against. Predicted Jun 20, 2026 3:08 am
Bear
ALV trends lower to
$104.36
(-11.7% from $118.24)
by Dec 2026.
| Monthmonths after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $118.24 at call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jun 20, 2026 | — | $118.24 at call | — |
| M1 | Jul 20, 2026 | $115.93 | — | -2.0% |
| What actually happened: closed $117.23 on Jul 20, 2026 = -0.9% vs the call (predicted -2.0%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.1 pp · accuracy 10/10 · S&P -0.8% over the same window — lagged it | ||||
| M2 | Aug 20, 2026 | $113.61 | — | -3.9% |
| What actually happened: closed $122.27 on Aug 19, 2026 = +3.4% vs the call (predicted -3.9%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 7.3 pp · accuracy 7/10 · S&P +2.8% over the same window — lagged it | ||||
| M3 | Sep 20, 2026 | $111.30 | — | -5.9% |
| What actually happened: closed $116.98 on Sep 18, 2026 = -1.1% vs the call (predicted -5.9%) · direction MISS (called down, was flat) · off by 4.8 pp · accuracy 4/10 · S&P +2.0% over the same window — lagged it | ||||
| M4 | Oct 20, 2026 | $108.99 | — | -7.8% |
Matured — awaiting scoring. This checkpoint's date has passed; the next scorer run
(score-outcomes.php) records what actually happened.
|
||||
| M5 | Nov 20, 2026 | $106.67 | — | -9.8% |
| M6 | Dec 20, 2026 | $104.36 | — | -11.7% |
Deserved value (DCF/composite) is $80.62; over 6 months we project closing only part-way to it (reach 36.9%). Value-only — see Not Yet Modeled below.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.3.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $118.24 |
| Composite fair value | $95.18 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $93.63 |
| DCF fair value | $66.06 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $169.37 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $85.00 |
| Value net score | -78 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +0 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | $80.62 |
| Quality tilt | +0% |
| Deserved value (used) | $80.62 |
| Coherence (value × quality) | 1.00 |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 35.8% 3m 35.4% 6m 30.5% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.27 3m 1.48 5m 1.28 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -1.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| Deserved wt · DCF | 0.5 |
| Quality tilt cap (±) | 0.2 |
| Horizon reach (6mo) | 0.45 |
| Coherence floor (conflict) | 0.5 |
| Conviction gain / pt | 0.06 |
| Realism mean-reversion φ | 0.85 |
| Conviction floor | 0.4 |
| Deserved wt · composite | 0.5 |
| Realism vol window | 3m |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| Horizon (months) | 6 |
| Realism σ fallback | 0.015 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.3.0
#6bd904191719 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jun 20, 2026 | freshest | ALV-20260620-030002-8475 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jun 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-ALV-20260620-030646-ebc5 |
ext-lens-value |
Jun 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-ALV-20260620-030646-ebc5 |
scenario-valuation |
Jun 20, 2026 | freshest | ALV-20260620-030002-8475 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jun 20, 2026 | freshest | ALV-20260620-030002-8475 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 20, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bear | $118.24 | $104.36 | -11.7% | Dec 2026 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.3.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Signal-adjusted fair value ($93.63) — the red-flag-adjusted anchor isn't the primary input yet (we use the raw DCF/composite blend, which double-counts DCF).
- Recent momentum / drift — the line takes off straight; the trailing 6-month move (-1.8%) doesn't bend the slope.
- Market beta — computed (1–5mo) for context but does not condition the path.
- Earnings dates, catalysts, and known events — not modeled.
- Macro regime & sector rotation — not modeled.
- Horizon is a fixed 6-month assumption, not a modeled time-to-target.
- Outcome scoring — predictions aren't yet graded against realized price once the evaluation date passes.