Made on
Sep 5, 2026
Price at call
$118.72
6-month call
Bull +21.3%
Target by Mar 2027
$144.00
Great value below
$95.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+21.3% to $144.00
Predicted High
$144.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$118.20
in 2 weeks
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-0.4%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 5, 2026 1:05 pm
Bull
BG trends higher to
$144.00
(+21.3% from $118.72)
by Mar 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisBG trades well below composite fair value ($220) with a strong earnings track record, but negative sentiment and quality concerns cap upside. Expect a slow grind higher toward the deterministic baseline as value gravity outweighs sleepy narrative, with early weeks flat before mean reversion asserts.
Invalidated ifA break below $110 on margin guidance cut, or failure to reclaim $125 by November, invalidates the recovery thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $118.72 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 5, 2026 | — | $118.72 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 19, 2026 | $110.51–$126.93 typical range · internal point $118.20 | — | ±6.9% | 7/10 | Sentiment drag keeps price near current levels |
| What actually happened: closed $115.58 on Sep 18, 2026 = -2.6% vs the call (predicted -0.4%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.2 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±6.9%: inside the band · S&P -0.9% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 5, 2026 | $106.83–$130.61 typical range · internal point $120.50 | — | ±10.0% | 6/10 | Mild drift up as risk-on tape helps |
| What actually happened: closed $106.72 on Oct 2, 2026 = -10.1% vs the call (predicted +1.5%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 11.6 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±10.0%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +0.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Nov 5, 2026 | $125.00 | — | +5.3% | 5/10 | Value buyers emerge below fair value gap |
| 3 months | Dec 5, 2026 | $130.00 | — | +9.5% | 5/10 | Year-end positioning favors cheap names |
| 4 months | Jan 5, 2027 | $135.00 | — | +13.7% | 4/10 | January rotation into laggard value stocks |
| 5 months | Feb 5, 2027 | $140.00 | — | +17.9% | 4/10 | Pre-earnings anticipation, beat streak supports |
| 6 months | Mar 5, 2027 | $144.00 | — | +21.3% | 3/10 | Convergence toward deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $146.04 (+23.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 3 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] Cash flow quality is poor — reported earnings may not reflect reality
-
Degraded
[critical] High debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low or refinancing needed
-
Degraded
[critical] Revenue is volatile and unreliable — growth projections are speculative
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $118.72 |
| Composite fair value | $220.24 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $160.95 |
| DCF fair value | $381.22 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $79.17 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $95.00 |
| Value net score | -62 |
| Value confidence | 5 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -37 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 31.0% 3m 34.7% 6m 31.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -1.53 3m -0.36 5m -0.35 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 1.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Sep 5, 2026 | freshest | BG-20260905-013001-e42b |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-BG-20260905-014539-4dac |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-BG-20260905-014539-4dac |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-BG-20260905-014539-4dac |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-BG-20260905-014539-4dac |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 5, 2026 | freshest | BG-20260905-013001-e42b |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $118.72 | $144.00 | +21.3% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.