Made on
Aug 7, 2026
Price at call
$58.73
6-month call
Bull +8.1%
Target by Feb 2027
$63.50
Great value below
$50.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+8.1% to $63.50
Predicted High
$63.50
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$58.10
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-1.1%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 7, 2026 1:07 am
Bull
BTI trends higher to
$63.50
(+8.1% from $58.73)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisBTI trades below composite fair value with a fat yield anchor and defensive beta, but risk-on tape and fallen-angel sentiment cap near-term upside. Expect a slow grind toward the $62-64 signal-adjusted zone as value gravity outweighs sentiment drag over 6 months.
Invalidated ifA break below $55 on regulatory or ZYN-category news, or failure to reclaim $60 by m3, would falsify the value-convergence path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $58.73 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 7, 2026 | — | $58.73 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 21, 2026 | $55.02–$62.44 typical range · internal point $58.40 | — | ±6.3% | 6/10 | Risk-on tape starves defensive; slight drift lower |
| What actually happened: closed $56.70 on Aug 20, 2026 = -3.5% vs the call (predicted -0.6%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.9 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±6.3%: inside the band · S&P -1.5% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 7, 2026 | $53.36–$64.10 typical range · internal point $58.10 | — | ±9.2% | 5/10 | Sentiment lid persists absent catalyst |
| What actually happened: closed $55.35 on Sep 4, 2026 = -5.8% vs the call (predicted -1.1%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 4.7 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±9.2%: inside the band · S&P -0.5% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 7, 2026 | $59.20 | — | +0.8% | 5/10 | Yield-seekers accumulate near support |
| What actually happened: closed $53.01 on Oct 6, 2026 = -9.7% vs the call (predicted +0.8%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 10.5 pp · accuracy 4/10 · S&P +0.8% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 3 months | Nov 7, 2026 | $60.50 | — | +3.0% | 5/10 | Value gravity toward composite fair value |
| 4 months | Dec 7, 2026 | $61.60 | — | +4.9% | 4/10 | Dividend reinvestment plus ZYN-adjacent pouch narrative |
| 5 months | Jan 7, 2027 | $62.80 | — | +6.9% | 4/10 | Approaching signal-adjusted anchor as regime rotates |
| 6 months | Feb 7, 2027 | $63.50 | — | +8.1% | 3/10 | Convergence near baseline endpoint, uncertainty widens |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $64.08 (+9.1%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $58.73 |
| Composite fair value | $60.24 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $62.40 |
| DCF fair value | $84.78 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $77.65 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $50.00 |
| Value net score | -1 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +5 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 34.9% 3m 31.7% 6m 28.8% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.61 3m -0.46 5m 0.00 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -4.7% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | BTI-20260807-000819-e6c0 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | ext-BTI-20260807-005507-2aa7 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | ext-BTI-20260807-005507-2aa7 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | ext-BTI-20260807-005507-2aa7 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | ext-BTI-20260807-005507-2aa7 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | BTI-20260807-000819-e6c0 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 7, 2026 | freshest | BTI-20260807-000819-e6c0 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $58.73 | $63.50 | +8.1% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.