Made on
Aug 31, 2026
Price at call
$126.31
6-month call
Neutral +4.3%
Target by Mar 2027
$131.75
Great value below
$100.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+4.3% to $131.75
Predicted High
$133.80
at 3 months
Predicted Low
$128.90
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 31, 2026 1:10 pm
Neutral
DG trends range-bound to
$131.75
(+4.3% from $126.31)
by Mar 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisDG has a clean sentiment tailwind from the Q2 beat and trade-down narrative in a risk-on tape, with low beta cushioning downside. Near-term drift higher toward the composite fair value ~$127-$135 zone, then modest continued grind as value gravity pulls toward the anchored-PE/DCF band, tempered by a negative value lens flag above $100.
Invalidated ifA close below $115 (breaking recent base) or a consumer-spending shock reversing the trade-down narrative would falsify this path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $126.31 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 31, 2026 | — | $126.31 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 14, 2026 | $117.49–$135.13 typical range · internal point $128.90 | — | ±7.0% | 7/10 | Post-beat momentum and risk-on tape lift shares |
| What actually happened: closed $124.58 on Sep 11, 2026 = -1.4% vs the call (predicted +2.1%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.4 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±7.0%: inside the band · S&P -0.4% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 1, 2026 | $113.53–$139.09 typical range · internal point $130.75 | — | ±10.1% | 6/10 | Trade-down narrative sustains bid, low beta stability |
| What actually happened: closed $119.58 on Sep 30, 2026 = -5.3% vs the call (predicted +3.5%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 8.8 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±10.1%: inside the band · S&P -0.5% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 31, 2026 | $132.40 | — | +4.8% | 5/10 | Grind toward composite fair value zone |
Matured — awaiting scoring. This checkpoint's date has passed; the next scorer run
(score-outcomes.php) records what actually happened.
|
||||||
| 3 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $133.80 | — | +5.9% | 5/10 | Holiday season defensive rotation aids DG |
| 4 months | Dec 31, 2026 | $132.00 | — | +4.5% | 4/10 | Year-end profit taking, value lens caps upside |
| 5 months | Jan 31, 2027 | $130.50 | — | +3.3% | 4/10 | Sentiment fades, valuation gravity reasserts |
| 6 months | Mar 3, 2027 | $131.75 | — | +4.3% | 4/10 | Settles near composite fair value pre-earnings |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $128.02 (+1.4%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $126.31 |
| Composite fair value | $127.59 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $120.19 |
| DCF fair value | $145.33 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $141.80 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $100.00 |
| Value net score | -12 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -2 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 26.0% 3m 35.1% 6m 37.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.76 3m 0.34 5m 0.51 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -21.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 31, 2026 | freshest | DG-20260831-050001-5737 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-DG-20260831-052357-eafd |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-DG-20260831-052357-eafd |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-DG-20260831-052357-eafd |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 31, 2026 | freshest | ext-DG-20260831-052357-eafd |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 31, 2026 | freshest | DG-20260831-050001-5737 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 31, 2026 | freshest | DG-20260831-050001-5737 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $126.31 | $131.75 | +4.3% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.