Made on
Jul 11, 2026
Price at call
$8.62
6-month call
Bull +78.3%
Target by Jan 2027
$15.37
Great value below
$9.00
Model
v0.3.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast
One directional 6-month call and the six monthly points we'll be scored against. Predicted Jul 11, 2026 3:35 am
Bull
ITUB trends higher to
$15.37
(+78.3% from $8.62)
by Jan 2027.
| Monthmonths after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $8.62 at call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 11, 2026 | — | $8.62 at call | — |
| M1 | Aug 11, 2026 | $9.75 | — | +13.1% |
| What actually happened: closed $7.88 on Aug 10, 2026 = -8.6% vs the call (predicted +13.1%) · direction MISS (called up, was down) · off by 21.7 pp · accuracy 3/10 · S&P +2.4% over the same window — lagged it | ||||
| M2 | Sep 11, 2026 | $10.87 | — | +26.1% |
| What actually happened: closed $8.30 on Sep 10, 2026 = -3.7% vs the call (predicted +26.1%) · direction MISS (called up, was flat) · off by 29.8 pp · accuracy 2/10 · S&P +0.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||
| M3 | Oct 11, 2026 | $12.00 | — | +39.2% |
| What actually happened: closed $10.16 on Oct 9, 2026 = +17.9% vs the call (predicted +39.2%) · direction HIT (called up, was up) · off by 21.4 pp · accuracy 3/10 · S&P +3.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||
| M4 | Nov 11, 2026 | $13.12 | — | +52.2% |
| M5 | Dec 11, 2026 | $14.25 | — | +65.3% |
| M6 | Jan 11, 2027 | $15.37 | — | +78.3% |
Deserved value (DCF/composite) is $26.92; over 6 months we project closing only part-way to it (reach 36.9%). Value-only — see Not Yet Modeled below.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 2 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
Cash flow quality is poor — reported earnings may not reflect reality
-
Degraded
High debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low or refinancing needed
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.3.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $8.62 |
| Composite fair value | $25.35 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $26.49 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $4.98 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $9.00 |
| Value net score | +16 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +31 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | $25.35 |
| Quality tilt | +6.2% |
| Deserved value (used) | $26.92 |
| Coherence (value × quality) | 1.00 |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 24.8% 3m 28.6% 6m 34.8% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.8% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.19 3m 0.72 5m 1.40 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 18.1% |
Knobs (equation params)
| Deserved wt · DCF | 0.5 |
| Quality tilt cap (±) | 0.2 |
| Horizon reach (6mo) | 0.45 |
| Coherence floor (conflict) | 0.5 |
| Conviction gain / pt | 0.06 |
| Realism mean-reversion φ | 0.85 |
| Conviction floor | 0.4 |
| Deserved wt · composite | 0.5 |
| Realism vol window | 3m |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| Horizon (months) | 6 |
| Realism σ fallback | 0.015 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.3.0
#6bd904191719 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 11, 2026 | freshest | ITUB-20260711-030005-9a8a |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 11, 2026 | freshest | ext-ITUB-20260711-032938-a9f2 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 11, 2026 | freshest | ext-ITUB-20260711-032938-a9f2 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 11, 2026 | freshest | ext-ITUB-20260711-032938-a9f2 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 11, 2026 | freshest | ITUB-20260711-030005-9a8a |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 11, 2026 | freshest | ITUB-20260711-030005-9a8a |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 11, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bull | $8.62 | $15.37 | +78.3% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.3.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Signal-adjusted fair value ($26.49) — the red-flag-adjusted anchor isn't the primary input yet (we use the raw DCF/composite blend, which double-counts DCF).
- Recent momentum / drift — the line takes off straight; the trailing 6-month move (18.1%) doesn't bend the slope.
- Market beta — computed (1–5mo) for context but does not condition the path.
- Earnings dates, catalysts, and known events — not modeled.
- Macro regime & sector rotation — not modeled.
- Horizon is a fixed 6-month assumption, not a modeled time-to-target.
- Outcome scoring — predictions aren't yet graded against realized price once the evaluation date passes.