Made on
Jun 17, 2026
Price at call
$36.50
6-month call
Bear -9.7%
Target by Dec 2026
$32.97
Great value below
$22.00
Model
v0.3.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast
One directional 6-month call and the six monthly points we'll be scored against. Predicted Jun 17, 2026 3:08 am
Bear
KMT trends lower to
$32.97
(-9.7% from $36.50)
by Dec 2026.
| Monthmonths after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $36.50 at call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jun 17, 2026 | — | $36.50 at call | — |
| M1 | Jul 17, 2026 | $35.91 | — | -1.6% |
| What actually happened: closed $33.74 on Jul 17, 2026 = -7.6% vs the call (predicted -1.6%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 6.0 pp · accuracy 4/10 · S&P +0.5% over the same window — beat it | ||||
| M2 | Aug 17, 2026 | $35.32 | — | -3.2% |
| What actually happened: closed $31.22 on Aug 14, 2026 = -14.5% vs the call (predicted -3.2%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 11.2 pp · accuracy 4/10 · S&P +4.9% over the same window — beat it | ||||
| M3 | Sep 17, 2026 | $34.74 | — | -4.8% |
| What actually happened: closed $29.70 on Sep 16, 2026 = -18.6% vs the call (predicted -4.8%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 13.8 pp · accuracy 4/10 · S&P +1.8% over the same window — beat it | ||||
| M4 | Oct 17, 2026 | $34.15 | — | -6.4% |
Matured — awaiting scoring. This checkpoint's date has passed; the next scorer run
(score-outcomes.php) records what actually happened.
|
||||
| M5 | Nov 17, 2026 | $33.56 | — | -8.1% |
| M6 | Dec 17, 2026 | $32.97 | — | -9.7% |
Deserved value (DCF/composite) is $17.38; over 6 months we project closing only part-way to it (reach 18.5%). Value-only — see Not Yet Modeled below.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 2 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
-
Degraded
AI analysis identifies strong headwinds — multiple forces working against this stock
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.3.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $36.50 |
| Composite fair value | $16.84 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $15.64 |
| DCF fair value | $17.38 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $22.00 |
| Value net score | -73 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +8 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | $17.11 |
| Quality tilt | +1.6% |
| Deserved value (used) | $17.38 |
| Coherence (value × quality) | 0.50 |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 44.9% 3m 56.2% 6m 48.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.00 3m 1.32 5m 1.39 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 24.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| Deserved wt · DCF | 0.5 |
| Quality tilt cap (±) | 0.2 |
| Horizon reach (6mo) | 0.45 |
| Coherence floor (conflict) | 0.5 |
| Conviction gain / pt | 0.06 |
| Realism mean-reversion φ | 0.85 |
| Conviction floor | 0.4 |
| Deserved wt · composite | 0.5 |
| Realism vol window | 3m |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| Horizon (months) | 6 |
| Realism σ fallback | 0.015 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.3.0
#6bd904191719 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jun 17, 2026 | freshest | KMT-20260617-030001-687c |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jun 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-KMT-20260617-030704-4a00 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jun 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-KMT-20260617-030704-4a00 |
ext-lens-value |
Jun 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-KMT-20260617-030704-4a00 |
scenario-valuation |
Jun 17, 2026 | freshest | KMT-20260617-030001-687c |
valuation-synthesis |
Jun 17, 2026 | freshest | KMT-20260617-030001-687c |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 17, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bear | $36.50 | $32.97 | -9.7% | Dec 2026 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.3.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Signal-adjusted fair value ($15.64) — the red-flag-adjusted anchor isn't the primary input yet (we use the raw DCF/composite blend, which double-counts DCF).
- Recent momentum / drift — the line takes off straight; the trailing 6-month move (24.4%) doesn't bend the slope.
- Market beta — computed (1–5mo) for context but does not condition the path.
- Earnings dates, catalysts, and known events — not modeled.
- Macro regime & sector rotation — not modeled.
- Horizon is a fixed 6-month assumption, not a modeled time-to-target.
- Outcome scoring — predictions aren't yet graded against realized price once the evaluation date passes.