Made on
Aug 23, 2026
Price at call
$192.01
6-month call
Neutral -4.7%
Target by Feb 2027
$183.00
Great value below
$150.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-4.7% to $183.00
Predicted High
$192.50
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$183.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-4.7%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 23, 2026 1:04 pm
Neutral
MMC trends range-bound to
$183.00
(-4.7% from $192.01)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesisMMC trades well above composite fair value ($123.70) with a negative value lens, but strong quality (71) and risk-on regime support elevated levels near-term. Expect modest drift lower as valuation gravity slowly reasserts over 6 months, tracking the deterministic baseline toward $183.
Invalidated ifA close above $205 on strong earnings or upgrade cycle, or a break below $175 signaling faster mean-reversion, would invalidate this gentle-decay path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $192.01 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 23, 2026 | — | $192.01 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 6, 2026 | $180.99–$203.03 typical range · internal point $192.50 | — | ±5.7% | 7/10 | Risk-on regime and low vol keep price anchored |
| What actually happened: closed $185.74 on Sep 4, 2026 = -3.3% vs the call (predicted +0.3%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.5 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±5.7%: inside the band · S&P +0.6% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 23, 2026 | $176.04–$207.98 typical range · internal point $191.00 | — | ±8.3% | 6/10 | Slight drift as valuation overhang persists |
| What actually happened: closed $172.72 on Sep 21, 2026 = -10.1% vs the call (predicted -0.5%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 9.5 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±8.3%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +1.2% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 23, 2026 | $188.50 | — | -1.8% | 5/10 | Quality premium fades modestly, no catalyst |
Matured — awaiting scoring. This checkpoint's date has passed; the next scorer run
(score-outcomes.php) records what actually happened.
|
||||||
| 3 months | Nov 23, 2026 | $186.00 | — | -3.1% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins to pull toward fair value |
| 4 months | Dec 23, 2026 | $184.50 | — | -3.9% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, negative beta dampens moves |
| 5 months | Jan 23, 2027 | $183.50 | — | -4.4% | 4/10 | Earnings season approaches, mild compression |
| 6 months | Feb 23, 2027 | $183.00 | — | -4.7% | 4/10 | Convergence toward deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $182.99 (-4.7%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $192.01 |
| Composite fair value | $123.70 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $125.31 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $142.05 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $150.00 |
| Value net score | -69 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +71 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 27.0% 3m 28.8% 6m 28.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.8% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.75 3m -0.84 5m -0.62 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 7.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 14, 2026 | 8d behind | MMC-20260814-001204-d7a9 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-MMC-20260822-142950-0f35 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-MMC-20260822-142950-0f35 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-MMC-20260822-142950-0f35 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-MMC-20260822-142950-0f35 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | MMC-20260822-141509-be49 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | MMC-20260822-141509-be49 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $192.01 | $183.00 | -4.7% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.