Made on
Aug 27, 2026
Price at call
$97.74
6-month call
Bull +16.6%
Target by Feb 2027
$114.00
Great value below
$78.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+16.6% to $114.00
Predicted High
$114.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$98.60
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 27, 2026 1:10 pm
Bull
MNDY trends higher to
$114.00
(+16.6% from $97.74)
by Feb 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisMNDY trades well below composite fair value ($116.86) with strong quality and a risk-on tape, but a fragile fallen-angel narrative and negative sentiment cap near-term upside. Path drifts higher toward the deterministic baseline as software rotation persists, with a mid-window earnings catalyst supplying a step-up.
Invalidated ifBreak below $88 on rising volume or regime flip to risk-off would invalidate the drift-higher thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $97.74 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 27, 2026 | — | $97.74 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 10, 2026 | $84.58–$110.90 typical range · internal point $98.60 | — | ±13.5% | 6/10 | Risk-on tape supports mild drift, low beta damps moves |
| What actually happened: closed $81.11 on Sep 9, 2026 = -17.0% vs the call (predicted +0.9%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 17.9 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±13.5%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -1.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 27, 2026 | $78.66–$116.82 typical range · internal point $100.20 | — | ±19.5% | 6/10 | Software rotation bid, sentiment still fragile |
| What actually happened: closed $83.66 on Sep 25, 2026 = -14.4% vs the call (predicted +2.5%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 16.9 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±19.5%: inside the band · S&P +0.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 27, 2026 | $103.50 | — | +5.9% | 5/10 | Slow grind toward fair value, thin catalysts |
Matured — awaiting scoring. This checkpoint's date has passed; the next scorer run
(score-outcomes.php) records what actually happened.
|
||||||
| 3 months | Nov 27, 2026 | $108.00 | — | +10.5% | 5/10 | Earnings likely beat given 4-of-4 track record |
| 4 months | Dec 27, 2026 | $110.50 | — | +13.1% | 4/10 | Post-print digestion, year-end positioning |
| 5 months | Jan 27, 2027 | $112.80 | — | +15.4% | 4/10 | Value gravity toward composite fair value $116 |
| 6 months | Feb 27, 2027 | $114.00 | — | +16.6% | 3/10 | Converges near deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $111.67 (+14.3%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 2 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
-
Note
EPV de-weighted — growth IS the value proposition for this type of company
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $97.74 |
| Composite fair value | $116.86 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $156.77 |
| DCF fair value | $132.96 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $78.00 |
| Value net score | -8 |
| Value confidence | 5 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +61 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 66.3% 3m 67.6% 6m 64.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 4.3% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.86 3m 0.56 5m 0.34 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 24.7% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 2, 2026 | 24d behind | MNDY-20260802-140303-fd8f |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-MNDY-20260826-154109-9b2e |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-MNDY-20260826-154109-9b2e |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-MNDY-20260826-154109-9b2e |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-MNDY-20260826-154109-9b2e |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | MNDY-20260802-140303-fd8f |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | MNDY-20260802-140303-fd8f |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.